At the July meeting of the Commonwealth Transportation Board (CTB), VDOT presented the third installment of VDOT’s 2026 Maintenance and Operations Comprehensive Review. This presentation focused on re-baselining the state’s long-term investment strategy for pavements and bridges. No CTB action was required at this meeting, but it sets up votes expected later this year in December.
Why VDOT is revisiting 2019 targets
The 2019 Comprehensive Review set a 20-year pavement strategy of $463 million per year for years one through six and $499 million per year for years seven through 20. It also set a 50-year bridge strategy of $384 million per year for bridge work plus $56 million for inspection and routine maintenance. All figures were in 2019 dollars and were never meant to stay fixed (VDOT Maintenance and Operations growth rate mimics the Consumer Price Index).
Several things have changed since then.
- Construction costs (As shown through the National Highway Construction Cost Index) have vastly outpaced general inflation
- Maintained lane miles have grown by roughly 1,500, including more than 220 on the Interstate.
- Heavier trucks up to 91,000 pounds are now under consideration, even though the system was largely designed for 80,000 pounds or less.
- New federal inspection standards (SNBI) added about 25 percent to inspection costs.
- A new federal requirement for emergency vehicle access has led to more posted bridges.
- Average age of the interstate system is 50 years, the average age of a bridge has risen to 55 years, and severe weather has accelerated deterioration.
- Number of bridges in inventory has increased (189 additional structures)
Pavement: The Four Scenarios
VDOT staff presented four different funding scenarios for the CTB to consider and detailed how each scenario would impact the pavement conditions of highways across Virginia. VDOT spent much of the presentation discussing the impact on the interstate system but stated that the condition of the primary and secondary highway system would follow the same trajectory of the interstate system in each funding scenario. All four scenarios would below begin in 2028.
| Pavement scenarios at a glance | ||
| Scenario | Annual investment | Projected outcome |
| Scenario 1 | $600 million | Meets no CTB targets |
| Scenario 2 | $774 million | Slows deterioration but falls short of CTB targets |
| Scenario 3 | $825 million in years 1–6; $853 million in years 7–20 | Meets current CTB targets |
| Scenario 4 | $833 million in years 1–6; $841 million in years 7–20 | Maintains current performance; VDOT’s recommendation |
Scenario 1: Current Funding ($600 million)
This scenario would not include the one-time investments the CTB has authorized since 2023 to keep VDOT on track to meet its pavement performance goals. If VDOT were to revert to its baseline of $600m a year, the agency projects interstate pavement sufficiency falls from 91 percent today to 71 percent by year six and 62 percent by year 20. This scenario projects about 1,200 interstate lane miles will deteriorate to a point of failure after 2033 and meets no set CTB targets.
Scenario 2: Actual Investment ($774 million)
This scenario reflects current baseline funding plus the one-time infusions the CTB has approved since fiscal year 2023. This scenario would slow the decline but still leaves about 600 interstate lane miles failing, and other pavement conditions will fall short of CTB targets.
Scenario 3: Investment Needed to Meet Current CTB Targets
This requires $825 million per year in years one through six and $853 million per year in years seven through 20. This scenario reaches 82 percent Interstate sufficiency (the CTB target) with no pavements failing, including on the primary and secondary systems.
Scenario 4: Investment Needed to Maintain Current Performance (VDOT’s recommendation)
This requires $833 million per year in years one through six and $841 million per year in years seven through 20. It holds the Interstate system at its current 91 percent sufficiency rather than letting it slide to the 82 percent target under Scenario 3, while still meeting the primary and secondary targets.
VDOT stated that maintaining pavement early is much cheaper than rebuilding it later. Preventive maintenance costs about $80,000 per lane mile, compared with $320,000 for corrective maintenance, $640,000 for restorative work, and $1.28 million for reconstruction. Although preventive maintenance requires more spending upfront, it saves money over the pavement’s 20-year lifecycle by keeping roads from reaching the most expensive stages of deterioration
Bridges: The Three Scenarios
Like the presentation on pavement, VDOT presented three different funding scenarios regarding bridges for the CTB to consider. VDOT owns or maintains 21,240 highway bridges: 2,435 on Interstate, 5,753 on Primary routes, and 13,052 on Secondary routes. VDOT modeled three 50-year scenarios beginning in 2028.
| Bridge scenarios at a glance | ||
| Scenario | Annual investment | Projected outcome |
| Scenario 1 | $415 million | Meets no system performance targets |
| Scenario 2 | $530 million | Meets Interstate and Primary targets but falls short on Secondary and urban bridges |
| Scenario 3 | $639 million | Meets all CTB targets |
Scenario 1: Current Funding ($415 million)
This scenario prioritizes the interstate and primary systems but meets performance targets on none of them. Predicted performance comes in at 95 percent non-poor on Interstate, 90 percent on Primary, and just 55 percent on Secondary and urban systems.
Scenario 2: Current Funding Plus Federal Bridge Formula Funds ($530 million)
This assumes roughly $115 million a year in federal IIJA bridge formula funding continues. It meets targets on the interstate and primary systems but still falls short on secondary roads. VDOT emphasized that the federal funding, which has brought in more than $578 million over the past six years, is not guaranteed. Whether it continues depends on federal reauthorization.
Scenario 3: Investment Needed to Meet CTB Targets ($639 million)
This adds another $109 million annually on top of Scenario 2 to fund work that is not federally eligible, mostly on the secondary system. It is the level VDOT says is needed to hit all CTB targets.
Bridge unit costs have risen even faster than pavement costs since 2019, with common bridge activities up roughly 20 to 249 percent which is outpacing general inflation. For example, structural excavation is up 135 percent, low-quantity superstructure concrete 173 percent, culvert work 250 percent, and epoxy overlay is up 249 percent.
What This Means for Counties
Nothing in this presentation commits the CTB to new spending yet. The July meeting was meant to provide the CTB with multiple funding scenarios and outline their potential impacts to the pavement and bridge conditions throughout the Commonwealth. A reoccurring theme throughout the meeting was that current funding, even with the one-time infusions approved since 2023, is not enough to sustain the system’s current condition or meet the state’s own targets. This is also true of the secondary system, which carries much of the local road network that counties depend on. One thing county leaders should know, and something the CTB is going to have to grapple with, is that any infusions or base increases to the maintenance program will impact the availability of construction funding barring any state or federal actions to grow construction revenues/funding.
Next Steps
Special structures will be discussed at the September meeting and routine maintenance targets will be set during the October meeting of the CTB. Final CTB approval of the re-baselined targets and investment levels is expected during the December meeting. VACo will continue to monitor these discussions and report as actions are taken.
VACo Contact: James Hutzler